Preparing
for Peak
NZ Posts Report - Preparing for Peak stated that "in 2023 nearly 28% of the whole year’s online spending occurred in the last quarter of the year (Q4 2023).
The Peak sales season in New Zealand starts at Labour Weekend through to New Year's Boxing Day Sales Week after which it tends to take a bit of a tumble again as everyone heads for the Top 10 Holiday Park - or their Bach if they're lucky.
Total spending online in 2023 may have been up 5% on 2022 at $1.6 billion, but still not at the level of 2021 peak season sales. And really, 28% of the year's income is only about a quarter of the year's sales, so it's not as massive a shift quarter on quarter as we might expect.
So What Do We Do to Capitalise on This Period?
Well, we can't ignore it. It really is the most promising quarter to invest in from a marketing point of view - as this is when we know for sure that the bulk of the proverbial "school of fish" we are hoping to catch are biting".
Consensus in the marketing arena is - as per my previous blog post - is that the time for marketing for Q4 Peak starts now.
Why? Well if you look at your marketing funnel - starting at the top - building awareness and capturing leads is the most critical activity you can do to enable you to activate the conversions stage of your funnel. Or, in more direct terms, you will have new leads to retarget in your media activity - all website visitors from the past 90 days (or 180 days if allowed) and hit them with your conversion activities.
So don't be too hell-bent on ROI and conversions in the form of sales for the next 30 days or so - if you build it they will come.
What About Our Cash Flow?
The current OCR at the time of writing this is 5.25% with the next update due on 9 October - nicely placed before Peak Season begins. Many anticipate another drop.
The graph above shows the radical impact of the sharp drop between 2019 and 2022 which saw many people making big financial descions and investments, only to be hit by the steepest incline in decades.
In fact Kiwi household debt took a whole new trajectory from 2020 onwards as the Gen Xers and Millenials took to debt like a fish to water. No wonder those Boomers are sitting so pretty right now.
If we look back even further, could we be comforted by the radical drop that took place post the 2009 Financial Crisis? However, I am not sure we can take that much comfort in that as the first 20 years of the millenium where relatively conflict free compared to where we are globally right now. Can many small businesses continue to ride this economic rollercoaster and keep coming back for more?
Telescopes Across the Ditch
The AU OCR is already a full percentage below NZ at 4.35% - even though the AU inflation was last at 3.8% in June 2024 compared to NZ is 3.3% in June 2024.
Not to mention AU GST sits at a mere 10% compared to New Zealand's 15% GST - so affordability for Australians looks to beat New Zealand's yet again for Peak.
So What Are The Outtakes Here?
Start your Awareness building and Lead Capture activities now.
Don't neglect the Boomers - there are a lot of them in NZ - over a quarter of the population. They have less debt and a nice pension and SuperGold Card to swipe for discounts.
You may need to run a SALE. I know it may not be your strategy, but you may need to add some discounts to stimulate spend and your competitiveness in the market.
Before you launch a SALE however, first try MULTIBUYS and BUNDLE DEALS. These added value deals can drive basket size and reduce margin impact.
Speak to your suppliers and the Brands you may stock - ask for funding. If you don't ask, you don't get!
Consider expanding your marketing across the ditch to grow new audiences.
Make sure you have all the boxes ticked in your marketing activities,
Good Luck
stok.communications is here if you need us!
Email us - stok@stok.nz
Do You Think 2024 Sales will End Better Than 2023
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